Kevin Warsh leads Polymarket odds for Fed Chair; Trump hints at nomination decision

Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh has surged to the forefront on Polymarket with odds at 59-60% for becoming the next Fed Chair. This follows President Donald Trump’s remarks at the White House on January 16, 2026.

Market Implications and Predictions

Kevin Hassett’s odds have decreased to 16% after Trump’s indication of a desire to retain Hassett as the White House National Economic Council director. Christopher Waller maintains a steady 14% in predictions as an independent choice.

The news has resulted in notable market reactions, as demonstrated by a selloff in U.S. government debt, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to exceed 4.2%. Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, have attracted attention with volumes surpassing $230 million.

“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth. Kevin Hassett is so good… We don’t want to lose him, Susie. We’ll see how it all works out,” remarked President Donald Trump, addressing Hassett directly.

Financial Sector Reactions

With the terms of overarching appointments at stake, the financial sector and analysts are observing these developments closely. The ongoing Department of Justice investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s office may further affect political dynamics and decision-making processes.

Future Insights and Economic Policy Shifts

Experts remain alert to the political maneuvering and projection of leadership effectiveness amid these changes. The absence of direct impacts on cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, keeps this political event distinctly financial and political in nature.

Insights suggest potential shifts could be seen in economic policy, regulatory stances, and larger financial systems. Historical trends illustrate the importance of leadership stability in maintaining market confidence and mitigating economic disruptions.